Please don't try to read into this blog post any political beliefs or agenda. This is simply an exercise in conditional probabilities.

In case you're on the internet for the first time this year, this election has been... different. For example, there's talk about how GOP convention ...

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This blog post has been cross-posted from here to Magnetic's tech blog.

Note: this post doesn't describe original mathematical research on my part. My initial motivation to write this post was simply that I was surprised by how hard it was to find a formula for the confidence ...

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